The Kair-Giver #3: Predictive Kair, No Algorithm Required

It’s no secret that preventing relapse in psychosis is a primary goal when it comes to our loved one’s recovery. The correlation between relapse and poor long term outcomes is strong; more frequent relapses lead worse psychosocial functioning, decreased effectiveness of social support, and increased potential for treatment resistance.(1) Thus, the fundamental question becomes, how do we as caregivers aid in reducing our loved one’s frequency of relapse?

It’s my belief that you can’t truly prevent something you don’t understand. With that in mind, it’s helpful to start with a mental model to uncover the mechanisms behind mental disorder progression. One such model is the Stress Vulnerability Model, which illustrates the development of a psychiatric disorder as dependent on biological vulnerability, stress, and environmental factors.(2)

Biological vulnerabilities refer to genetic and early life factors that increase a person’s susceptibility to mental illness. They characterize our uncontrollable disposition to different disorders. Stress—from life events, tense relationships, or major life changes—can trigger symptom onset and worsen them over time. Protective factors such as medication, coping skills, peer support, and structured activities serve as buffers that help reduce vulnerability and the likelihood of relapse.

While this model provides a useful framework, it’s only truly valuable when paired with personal insight. People with psychosis-related disorders vary greatly in how their symptoms, triggers, and relapse patterns manifest over time.

The first step families can take is identifying what’s called a relapse signature. In a nutshell, a relapse signature is a personalized pattern of early warning signs that indicate when someone is approaching relapse. These signs go beyond the typical positive, negative, and affective symptoms—they include the unique mix of thoughts, feelings, and behaviors that emerge in the 1–4 weeks leading up to relapse.(3,4) For example, one family I spoke with noticed that their loved one began compulsively eating yogurt before each episode. These signs are highly individual.

Once families understand the relapse signatures relevant to their situations, they can better recognize when something is off and intervene early. Those who go a step further—by building crisis prevention plans that incorporate these signatures—tend to detect early warning signs more effectively and prevent full-blown relapses.(4)

Crisis prevention plans typically outline the specific triggers, early warning signs, coping strategies, and support systems that are most relevant for preventing relapse. They serve as clear, personalized roadmaps—detailing what to look for, what actions to take, and who to contact when symptoms begin to resurface. By providing structure and shared understanding, these plans help families respond quickly, consistently, and with confidence during stressful moments.(4)

Despite these clear benefits, less than ~10% of families nationwide have a formal crisis prevention plan in place.(5) If we did create these plans—and especially make these plans accessible through digital tools—we could build for a world where personalized care journey tracking and relapse prevention are the norm. All while maintaining privacy and control over our own data. The team at Kairos is working tirelessly to build what families truly need on their journey through psychosis recovery. After all, we’re caregivers too.

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